Qatar’s economic activity could remain modest on expectedly steady hydrocarbon output, National Bank of Kuwait said in its report released Monday.
NBK’s 2023 growth forecast for Qatar remains unchanged from the May estimate, at 2%.
In its report, NBK noted Qatar’s economy expanded by 2.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in first quarter (Q1, 2023), down from the “exceptional” World Cup-driven growth of 6.2% in Q4, 2022, and below the consensus forecast of 4.2%.
The “slower” expansion was mostly on a marked deceleration in non-oil growth, which plunged to 1.9% y-o-y from 7% in the previous quarter, with the manufacturing (11%), motor vehicle repair (9.1%), transportation and storage (17%), and accommodation and food (17%) components expanding the most.
Meanwhile, hydrocarbon sector growth eased to 4.1% from 4.8% previously, but remained the largest contributor to GDP (more than half).
Looking forward, economic activity could remain modest on expectedly steady hydrocarbon output and as non-oil activity moderates post World Cup amid lower visitor numbers, softer credit growth, and higher interest rates; NBK said its 2023 growth forecast for Qatar remains unchanged from the May estimate, at 2% from 4.8% in 2022.
The report also noted that Brent crude snapped a two-week losing streak on September 1, closing up at its highest level since last November at $88.6/barrel (+4.8% week over week) amid expectations of tighter supply.
“All the indications are that Saudi Arabia will extend its voluntary 1mn barrels per day (bpd) production cut, in effect since July, into October, while Russia could also reduce its exports further after Russian deputy prime minister promised to unveil a new OPEC+ supply cut deal this week,” NBK said.
In the US, commercial oil inventories fell for a third consecutive week (crude stocks have declined in five of the last six weeks), by 8mb in the week ending August 25, on higher domestic (refinery throughputs) and overseas demand (exports).
“Prices were little changed this morning (September 4) in Asian trading,” NBK noted.
Source : Zawya
